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Egypt, Somalia, Eritrea Forge Alliance Amid Growing Regional Tensions with Ethiopia

In a significant development that could reshape the political landscape of the Horn of Africa, the leaders of Egypt, Somalia, and Eritrea convened in Asmara this week to form a strategic alliance. The trilateral meeting, hosted by Eritrean President Isaias Afwerki, comes at a time of heightened tensions in the region, particularly with neighboring Ethiopia.

In a joint statement released on October 10, 2024, Egyptian President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi, Somali President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud, and President Afwerki pledged full support for Somalia’s national security and sovereignty. The leaders outlined plans to strengthen Somali state institutions, enhance the capabilities of the Somali National Federal Army (SNFA), and protect the nation from both internal and external threats.

The summit marks a significant development in regional security dynamics, with the trio agreeing to form a Joint Tripartite Committee for strategic cooperation across all sectors. El-Sisi emphasized the importance of the collaboration, stating, “We have resolved to extend unwavering support to Somalia to fulfill President Mohamud’s vision of restoring security and stability through its national army.”

While the joint statement focused on “peace and stability,” analysts suggest that the newly formed alliance is aimed at countering Ethiopia’s growing influence in the region. In particular, Ethiopia’s Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) with Somaliland and the ongoing dispute over the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) have created friction with Egypt and other neighboring states.

The formation of this “Asmara axis” occurs against the backdrop of Ethiopia’s ongoing efforts to assert its influence in the region. Ethiopia has prioritized its MoU with Somaliland, which provides Ethiopia strategic access to the Somaliland port, while continuing to pursue the operationalization of the GERD, a massive hydroelectric project that has caused long-standing tensions with Egypt over Nile water resources.

In a response issued by Ethiopia’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs on October 11, 2024, the government reaffirmed its commitment to reducing diplomatic tensions. The ministry stated that it was working to “prevent a campaign to tarnish Ethiopia’s image” and encouraged dialogue with neighboring countries.

Experts believe Ethiopia may face growing pressure from the new alliance. Costantinos Berhutesfa, a geopolitical analyst and former AU anti-graft commissioner, warned that Egypt’s involvement in Somalia may be part of a broader strategy to counter Ethiopia. “Given Egypt’s reluctance to engage in direct conflict with Ethiopia, leveraging Eritrea in a potential proxy war could be a way to destabilize Ethiopia,” he said. Berhutesfa noted Egypt’s historical grievances over the GERD as a key driver behind this alliance.

Despite these concerns, Berhutesfa does not believe the alliance poses an immediate threat to Ethiopia, suggesting that open conflict is unlikely. “While tensions are high, Eritrea lacks the leverage to start a war with Ethiopia,” he stated, adding that internal discussions within Ethiopia, including with the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF), have further stabilized the situation.

However, other experts are more cautious about the implications of the new alliance. Assefa Leake Gebru, a political science professor at Mekelle University, highlighted potential security risks for Ethiopia. He pointed out that the historical rivalry between Eritrea and Ethiopia’s TPLF could escalate, leading to military confrontations along their shared border.

Assefa also raised concerns about increased military cooperation between Egypt, Somalia, and Eritrea. “Joint exercises and intelligence sharing could be aimed at undermining Ethiopian security,” he warned, adding that extremist groups in Somalia could exploit the situation to act against Ethiopia.

To mitigate these challenges, experts are calling on Ethiopia to pursue proactive diplomacy. Berhutesfa stressed the importance of engaging in talks with Egypt and Eritrea, as well as with international stakeholders like the U.S., to prevent further destabilization. “Ethiopia should make clear that it does not seek to undermine regional stability and instead promote peaceful solutions,” he said.

Assefa echoed these sentiments, urging Ethiopia to strengthen its alliances with neighboring countries such as Kenya and Sudan. He also advocated for a comprehensive water resource management framework for the Nile Basin to address ongoing disputes with Egypt over the GERD.

Ultimately, analysts agree that Ethiopia must remain vigilant but also diplomatic in navigating the changing regional dynamics. “Safeguarding Ethiopia’s interests and promoting regional stability should be the priority,” Assefa said.

As the Horn of Africa faces rising geopolitical tensions, the formation of this new alliance will likely have significant implications for the future of Ethiopia, its neighbors, and the broader region. Whether through diplomacy or heightened competition, the coming months will be critical in determining the path forward for this complex and strategically important region.

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Habtamu Alemu

Habtamu Alemu is a seasoned journalist and the editor-in-chief of Ethio Eyewitness News.

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