In recent months, tensions surrounding the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) have escalated, bringing the potential for military conflict between Egypt and Ethiopia into sharper focus. Egypt’s hardening stance against the dam, which Ethiopia views as crucial to its economic development, reflects deeper regional dynamics and an outdated reliance on colonial-era water treaties.
The GERD project, positioned on the Blue Nile, has been a point of contention between Cairo and Addis Ababa since Ethiopia announced its construction in 2011. Contributing approximately 85% of the Nile’s water, the Blue Nile is vital for Egypt, which heavily depends on the river for agriculture, drinking water, and electricity. At the same time, Ethiopia sees the GERD as a cornerstone for its economic future, offering hydroelectric power and the prospect of greater regional influence.
Egypt’s Strategic Alliances and Shifting Dynamics
Egypt’s opposition to the GERD has not been limited to diplomacy. Over the years, Cairo has sought to build alliances across East Africa to pressure Ethiopia. From 2014 to 2022, Egypt maintained close relations with South Sudan and Uganda, both of whom supported its position. However, Cairo struggled to solidify its influence in South Sudan due to local opposition, particularly from the Nuer community, which has historical ties to Ethiopia.
In recent developments, Egypt has shifted its focus to Somalia and Eritrea, aligning with them in opposition to Ethiopia. Two major factors are driving this change in alliances.
First, Somaliland—a self-declared autonomous region within Somalia that lacks international recognition—signed a significant deal with Ethiopia earlier this year, granting Ethiopia access to critical seaports on the Gulf of Aden and the Red Sea. Somalia, which considers Somaliland part of its sovereign territory, views this agreement as a direct challenge to its authority and has threatened military action to block Ethiopian access to these strategic ports. Somalia’s opposition to Ethiopia has drawn it closer to Egypt, with both nations now working to curb Ethiopia’s growing influence in the region.
Second, Egypt has covertly supported Eritrea’s hosting of the Fano militia, an ethnic nationalist group from Ethiopia’s Amhara region. The Fano militia is dissatisfied with the Ethiopian government’s 2022 peace agreement with the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF), feeling betrayed by Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed’s policies. They have established a base in Eritrea, receiving military training and support, further destabilizing Ethiopia.
Egypt’s Tactics: Proxy Warfare and Regional Destabilization
Cairo has capitalized on these developments, providing weapons and military equipment to Somalia and backing the Fano militia through Eritrean channels. By supporting these groups, Egypt aims to weaken Ethiopia from within, thereby strengthening its position in the GERD dispute. This strategy of proxy warfare and regional destabilization has raised concerns about the potential for a broader conflict in the Horn of Africa.
Ethiopia, aware of the mounting pressure, has taken precautionary steps. Recently, Ethiopian Airlines suspended flights to Eritrea, citing tensions and reports that the Eritrean government planned to block its airspace. Additionally, Ethiopia has disclosed that Eritrea froze the airline’s bank accounts in the country, further straining bilateral relations.
These escalating tensions suggest that Egypt’s aggressive military posture over the GERD could trigger a regional war, particularly as alliances harden. Countries like Eritrea and Somalia now support Egypt, while other nations, including upstream Nile countries, remain staunchly opposed to Cairo’s insistence on maintaining historical control over the river’s waters.
The Obsolescence of Colonial-Era Treaties
At the heart of the dispute is Egypt’s continued reliance on outdated treaties—the 1929 and 1959 Nile water agreements—which grant it significant control over the river’s flow. These treaties, established during colonial times, have long been a source of frustration for upstream nations, particularly Ethiopia, which was not a party to either agreement.
The 1929 treaty, brokered by British colonial powers, and the 1959 accord between Egypt and Sudan, granted Egypt a lion’s share of the Nile’s waters. However, they failed to account for the needs of other Nile Basin countries, including Ethiopia, which contributes the vast majority of the river’s water through the Blue Nile.
Ethiopia has repeatedly argued that these colonial-era agreements no longer reflect the geopolitical and environmental realities of the 21st century. With a growing population and an ambitious economic agenda, Ethiopia views the GERD as a vital project that will provide electricity to millions of its citizens and neighboring countries. Despite these arguments, Egypt continues to view any challenge to the status quo as a threat to its survival.
A Path Toward Conflict or Cooperation?
The possibility of military conflict over the GERD is becoming increasingly real as Egypt doubles down on its anti-dam strategy. However, a prolonged conflict would have devastating consequences for the region. Egypt, Ethiopia, and other nations that rely on the Nile face significant economic and humanitarian risks if tensions spiral into war.
The only viable solution lies in negotiation and compromise. Egypt’s insistence on clinging to nearly century-old treaties is untenable, and its attempts to use proxy forces to destabilize Ethiopia are counterproductive. Instead, Cairo and Addis Ababa should seek a mutually beneficial agreement that considers the needs of all Nile Basin countries.
By acknowledging Ethiopia’s legitimate development needs and working together to ensure equitable water usage, the two nations can avoid the looming threat of conflict. Without such an agreement, the Nile—long a source of life for millions—could become a flashpoint for war.
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