The European Union (EU) has been striving to establish itself as a significant geopolitical actor in the Horn of Africa. However, ongoing conflicts and escalating tensions in the region have thwarted the EU’s efforts to promote peace, stability, and sustainable economic development. The reasons for this are multifaceted, involving both internal coordination issues within the EU and the increasing involvement of other foreign powers in the Horn.
One of the primary internal challenges the EU faces is the lack of a clear,
cohesive strategy for the Horn of Africa. The latest guiding document, the May 2021 Council Conclusions, outlines the EU’s interests in various domains such as peace and security, democracy, human rights, and sustainable development. However, this document lacks a detailed strategy, leaving the EU without a clear articulation of its interests, priorities, and the means to achieve them.
Additionally, the EU struggles with reconciling the interests and approaches of individual member states and EU institutions. For example, during the war in Ethiopia’s Tigray region, EU High Representative Josep Borrell took a harder stance than some member states like Italy. In Sudan, differences emerged over France’s perceived support for the Rapid Support Forces. Such discrepancies undermine a unified EU foreign policy.
Further complicating the EU’s efforts is the difficulty in coordinating its various policy tools. In Ethiopia, the EU declared its support for accountability for atrocities committed during the 2020-2022 war. However, when the Ethiopian government attempted to shut down a UN probe into these atrocities, the EU failed to leverage its diplomatic influence within the UN and even pledged a large aid package to Ethiopia, inadvertently rewarding the government.
The growing engagement of other foreign actors in the Horn has further diluted the EU’s influence. Middle Eastern countries, particularly the UAE, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and Turkey, have significantly strengthened their presence in the region. The UAE, for instance, has become a major supporter of the Ethiopian federal government and the Rapid Support Forces in Sudan. Turkey’s involvement has been notable in Somalia and Ethiopia, while Iran has re-entered the scene by supplying drones to Sudanese forces. Additionally, global powers like Russia and China have maintained strategic ties in the region.
This increased foreign presence complicates the EU’s efforts. Local actors, having a broader array of foreign supporters, can resist pressure from any single partner, including the EU. During Ethiopia’s Tigray conflict, support from the UAE, Turkey, and Iran, combined with diplomatic backing from Russia and China, insulated the Ethiopian government from Western pressure. Similarly, Sudan’s warring parties rely on support from the UAE and Egypt, making it difficult for the EU and others to halt the fighting.
For the EU to strengthen its geopolitical role in the Horn of Africa, several key shifts are necessary:
- Clearer Strategy: The EU needs to define a clearer strategy for the Horn, specifying its interests, priority goals, and the means to achieve them through coordinated use of diplomacy, aid, trade, and security support. This process will likely be challenging due to internal divergences but is crucial for effective engagement.
- Focus on Comparative Advantages: The EU should concentrate on areas where it has a comparative advantage, such as development cooperation and private sector engagement. Adjusting initiatives like the Global Gateway to better suit the Horn’s crisis contexts can enhance the EU’s impact.
- Influence on Other Foreign Powers: The EU should explore ways to influence other foreign actors in the Horn. For instance, leveraging its relationships with the UAE and Egypt could encourage these countries to play more constructive roles. The EU could highlight the UAE’s need to maintain its reputation as an international business hub and emphasize Egypt’s reliance on financial support from the EU and international institutions.
While the EU faces significant challenges in its geopolitical endeavors in the Horn of Africa, a more defined strategy, focus on strengths, and strategic influence over other foreign actors could enhance its role. By addressing internal coordination issues and adapting to changing international dynamics, the EU can better contribute to peace, stability, and sustainable development in the region.
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